Top 5 Fantasy Football RBs to stay away from

So here I am. It’s Friday night, I’m getting ready for a draft with friends, $20 entry fee. Standard rules. I randomly receive the #1 overall pick. Now, normally I dislike being in the top-5 in a draft. The first 2 or 3 aren’t bad, because the quality of guys there are pretty similar. But landing on #4 or 5 or even 6th draft pick means, not only am I going to miss out on those top-3 RBs, but I then have to wait until deep into the next round for my next pick, in which case usually the top 2-3 QBs are off the board, the top 8-10 RBs might be gone, and definitely the top 2-3 WRs.

But here I am. My opportunity to grab Adrian Peterson #1 overall, and then sit and wait until #20 + #21 for my next two picks. I look at the pre-ranked ESPN selections and think “Well, not so bad, I can grab Tom Brady and Darren McFadden, and start off pretty strong”. I load up my pre-draft choices up until the 4th round, and then go downstairs to make some nachos. Cheesy chips + beer + football? That’s a win.

The last few minutes of pre-draft go by and the draft starts as I’m walking back upstairs with some warm nacho goodness. Tick, tick, tick. Congratulations, you have just drafted Brandon Lloyd. SHITFUCKGODDAMNIT!!! Yes. My #1 overall pick went to a 4th round wide receiver. Coincidentally, he was the lucky recipient of last year’s best wide-receiver, scoring a ton of points for Denver. But this year? Ehh, with the Broncos switching coaches, and the possible likes of Tim Tebow grabbing the starting QB duties this year, it’s not very likely. But here I am, with a 4th round wide receiver as my #1 pick, and having to wait until #20 to actually start fixing my mistake draft. Way to go, Jason. Way, to, go.

It’s not easy to fix a big mistake like that, but it’s possible. Overall, my team is rather solid (in my opinion). I stay away from guys I know are going to be busts for their draft selection, and pick up guys that I feel will be better than they are drafted at. So, without boring you further, here are some guys that I definitely don’t pick up, and try to fix a mistake like mine: 

Frank Gore

It pains me greatly to put another 49er on these “avoid” lists, but it is what it is. Right now Frank Gore is being drafted within the first 15 slots, and I would avoid him in the top-20 entirely. The fact that he missed another half-season last year with an injury, and his contract disputes still on-going with the San Francisco 49ers, you never know what’s going on with him. It’s an unsafe bet, most definitely.

Draft Frank Gore for sure, but don’t do it except in the 3rd round. Unfortunately, the computer or uneducated draftees will grab him anyway, and I’d much rather grab someone who I know is going to play 15-16 games this year.

 

Arian Foster

Wow. Really? The top running back of 2010 makes this list?

Last year in my $50 fantasy football league, I ruled the school with Adrian Peterson + Arian Foster. This year, I avoid Foster like the plague. Here’s why:

  • Over-hype. Yeah, he was a stud last year. But until he can repeat that performance, he stays out of my top-5. Probably my top-10 as well. However he’s usually going 2nd/3rd overall in drafts this year. Good luck with that.
  • Vonta Leach. The fullback last year was the guy blocking for Arian Foster, and is now blocking for Ray Rice. Who do the Texans have? A converted tight end, James Casey. They also signed a veteran fullback, but I’m not going to trust the change in front-man to alter Arian Foster.
  • Derrick Ward, Ben Tate, Steve Slaton. All three guys are still on the Houston Texans roster, and Tate is looking pretty awesome this year.

Don’t do it. Or rather, do it, and trade Arian Foster to the over-dramatic nerd who will give you much more for him than he is really worth.

Cedric Benson

His best days are behind him, and the best days have past the Cincinnati Bengals by completely. With the passing game all but out of the orange & black this year, the running game will be the focus of all defenses. Cedric Benson had a great season with the Bengals two years ago, but last year was a reminder that the Bengals will be last place in the division.

Heck, I even believe that the Bengals will be a front-runner for the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes, with their possible 2-14 season I predict they’re going to have. When you’re losing in every game, the running game dissipates and the passing game scrambles to find points on the board. Cedric Benson will be a disappointment not only with the production he’ll have, but with the opportunities he’ll be allowed to disappoint with.

 

Peyton Hillis

Reasons that I am not buying the hype of Peyton Hillis this year:

  1. He’s on the Cleveland Browns. Let’s get real. You’re in a division with the Steelers and the Ravens, this is a bad decade for you.
  2. Madden Curse. Yeah, it’s real.
  3. Did you notice how he started to wear down in the season, producing fewer fantasy points? The guy got tired. Injured and beat-up. He’s a year older now, with a year of wear-and-tear on his body.

Pick one.

Pierre Thomas

Just as I am about to tell you why you should draft Mark Ingram, this is why you should avoid Pierre Thomas.

Over the last two years, Pierre Thomas has been a solid 3rd/4th round pick, despite craziness in the RB depth behind him on the New Orleans Saints roster. this year, the Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram is a beast. I’ve seen Ingram run over and through people in preseason. Currently the two are about equal on the fantasy draft boards, but it’s Mark Ingram who will win the starting job, not Pierre Thomas. Reggie Bush is gone, but not the timeshare in the bayou.

Pierre Thomas is also injury prone, which is why the Saints ran about 5 running backs last year. if Ingram gets cut down, by all means, Pierre Thomas is your man. But not right now.

Author: Jason Zajdel

Learning as I go along. It’s an awesome ride. =-)